Outlook for the Chemical Industry

Growth in the global chemical industry (excluding pharmaceuticals) is expected to be slightly lower (3.0%) in 2025 compared with 2024 (+3.9%). We anticipate weak growth in the advanced economies following stagnation in the previous year (2025: +0.8%, 2024: +0.1%). Expansion in the emerging markets is expected to slow slightly (2025: +3.9%, 2024: +5.5%).

In China, which accounts for half of global chemical production, growth is expected to ease slightly from the high level of the previous year (2025: +4.2%, 2024: +6.8%). While domestic demand for goods is expected to expand slightly more, growth momentum from foreign trade in the chemicals sector and its customer industries is likely to be somewhat weaker. Demand from the Chinese automotive industry is also expected to increase at a slower pace than in 2024.

In the other emerging markets of Asia, we anticipate slightly higher growth in the chemical industry (2025: +3.5%, 2024: +2.2%). This is primarily due to higher growth in India (+4.5%), while the rest of the region is expected to grow by around 3%.

Following the catch-up effects of the previous year and the already evident slowdown in the second half of 2024, we expect a slight decline by 0.3% in the EU. Positive momentum for regional demand should come primarily from consumer goods industries and the construction industry, although it is only growing at a weak rate, while demand from the automotive industry is likely to continue to decline.

In the United States, we expect chemical demand to grow slightly (+1.5%) after stagnating in 2024. Increased demand is expected primarily in the food industry, production of chemicals for care products, the plastics industry, and information and communications technology. However, the anticipated decline in automotive production and weak construction demand are likely to dampen growth.

For Japan, we forecast that chemical production will stabilize after the sharp decline in the previous two years (2025: +0.6%, 2024: –2.9%, 2023: –6.6%). The demand for chemicals is likely to be supported by the anticipated stabilization in local automotive production and a return to growth in the technology sector.

In South America, we expect chemical production to grow by slightly more than 2%. While growth in Brazil is anticipated to slow slightly, Argentina is likely to make a positive contribution amid its anticipated economic recovery.