Outlook for Key Customer Industries

We anticipate global industrial production to increase by 2.4% (2024: +2.1%). In the advanced economies it is likely to grow again slightly (2025: +0.8%, 2024: –0.1%). Growth in the emerging markets will probably remain at a similar level to the previous year (2025: +3.6%, 2024: +3.9%).

We are forecasting stagnation for the entire transportation industry.¹ For the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, we expect stagnation after the decrease in 2024. Global production will therefore remain at around 89.5 million vehicles. Marginal growth is expected for the Chinese market. In contrast, we anticipate a decline in production for the EU, the United States, South Korea and Japan. For Japan, production should stabilize after the sharp decline in 2024 and only decrease slightly. The share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the total production volume is expected to increase further from around 13% in 2024 to around 17% in 2025.

Given the slightly higher global industrial growth, the energy and raw materials sector is likely to grow at a slightly faster pace in 2025 compared with the previous year. All subsectors (energy supply, oil and gas production, refining, non-energy raw materials extraction) are expected to contribute to growth.

For the construction industry, we anticipate a slight recovery with continued weak residential construction, moderate growth in nonresidential construction and solid growth in the infrastructure segment. Demand for residential properties will continue to be impacted by comparatively high interest rates and high construction costs in the United States and Europe. In the United States, the positive effects in government-subsidized industrial construction are expected to diminish. Further, we anticipate a decline in residential construction given the current trend in construction starts. Weak expansion in the overall EU market is expected after a considerable decline in 2024, while residential construction will continue to contract. The real estate crisis in China is expected to ease. Despite a continued decline in new residential construction, we anticipate the overall market to grow moderately.

Overall, consumer goods production is likely to grow at a similar rate as global GDP. Demand for nondurable (care products) and durable consumer goods (textiles) in particular is expected to grow largely in line with GDP. After stagnating in 2024, we now expect weak growth in the furniture industry.

Growth in the electronics industry is likely to remain dynamic, but slightly weaker than in 2024. In particular, above-average growth rates are expected in the computer and communications technology sector. However, traditional consumer electronics is likely to see weaker growth.

In the health and nutrition sector, we anticipate growth to be stronger than in 2024 and slightly above GDP. In line with long-term trends, the food industry is expected to grow at the same rate as global GDP, while slightly higher growth is projected for the pharmaceutical industry.

Agricultural production is expected to grow at a slightly higher rate in 2025 than in the prior-year period. Following the weather-related lower growth in 2024, we anticipate a higher growth rate in Europe. In North America, however, we expect a slowdown. South America is also unlikely to maintain the high growth momentum of 2024. In Asia, by far the world’s largest agricultural market with a two-thirds share, agricultural production is expected to grow slightly faster than in 2024.