Outlook 2025

Our forecast for the BASF Group and segments for 2025 is based on the assumption that a moderate recovery in demand for goods will support the growth in gross domestic product and industrial production. In particular, the decline in consumer price inflation and the associated increase in real incomes are expected to boost consumer purchasing power in the United States and Europe. However, challenges such as increasing geopolitical uncertainty and a further escalation of trade conflicts in particular, will weigh on business and consumer confidence. Following the decline in automotive production in 2024, we expect stagnation in 2025. For the global chemical industry, we anticipate slightly higher growth compared with expectations for gross domestic product and industrial production. Growth in the chemical industry should result primarily from the anticipated expansion of the sector in China and other emerging Asian markets. We anticipate an average oil price of $75 for a barrel of Brent crude and an exchange rate of $1.05 per euro (more information on the outlook on the economic environment in 2025).

Earnings and free cash flow forecast for the BASF Group¹

In 2025, the BASF Group’s EBITDA before special items is expected to increase to between €8.0 billion and €8.4 billion (2024: €7.9 billion). The Materials, Nutrition & Care, Industrial Solutions² and Surface Technologies segments² are likely to contribute to this. For some, this may be primarily attributable to sales volume growth and, in some cases, also to higher margins. In the standalone business Agricultural Solutions, we forecast slightly higher volume-related earnings. EBITDA before special items for the Chemicals segment is expected to decrease slightly compared with 2024. In particular, earnings in the Petrochemicals division will be impacted by rising fixed costs in connection with the startup of the new Verbund site in China and scheduled turnarounds. The anticipated considerable earnings growth in the Intermediates division will only be able to partially offset this.

We forecast the BASF Group’s free cash flow to be between €0.4 billion and €0.8 billion (2024: €0.7 billion). This is based on expected cash flows from operating activities of between €5.6 billion and €6.0 billion, minus expected payments made for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets in the amount of €5.2 billion.

CO₂ emissions forecast for the BASF Group

CO₂ emissions are expected to be between 16.7 million metric tons and 17.7 million metric tons in 2025 (2024: 17.0 million metric tons). We anticipate additional emissions compared with the previous year from higher forecast production volumes based on rising demand. We will counteract this increase with targeted measures to reduce emissions, such as increasing energy efficiency and optimizing processes as well as continuing the shift to electricity from renewable energies through the shareholding in the Hollandse Kust Zuid offshore wind farm, for example.