Outlook

The fire at the North Harbor on October 17, 2016, negatively affected our supply and logistics at the Verbund site in Ludwigshafen. Based on the information available at the time of this publication, we expect the statements on opportunities and risks made in the BASF Report 2015 and updated in the Half-Year Financial Report 2016 to remain fundamentally valid.

We have adjusted our expectations for the global economic environment in 2016 as follows (previous forecast from the BASF Report 2015 in parentheses):

• Growth in gross domestic product: 2.3% (2.3%)
• Growth in industrial production: 2.0% (2.0%)
• Growth in chemical production: 3.4% (3.4%)
• Average euro/dollar exchange rate: $1.10 per euro ($1.10 per euro)
• Annualized average price of a barrel of oil: $45 ($40 per barrel)

We confirm our forecast for sales, EBIT before special items, and EBIT of the BASF Group:

Sales will decrease considerably in 2016.¹ As a consequence of the asset swap with Gazprom, contributions to the Oil & Gas segment have ceased from the natural gas trading and storage business in particular. In the first three quarters of 2015, these activities had contributed a total of around €10.1 billion to sales. Sales will be furthermore reduced by lower prices for oil and gas. We want to increase sales volumes, excluding the effects of acquisitions and divestitures.

We expect both EBIT before special items and EBIT to be slightly below 2015 levels.¹ This remains an ambitious goal in the current volatile and challenging environment, and in light of the fire of October 17 and its consequences.

Due to the lower level of tied-down operating capital, we now expect EBIT after cost of capital² to considerably exceed the low level of the prior year (previous forecast: considerable decline).