Actual Development Compared with Outlook for 2024
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Earnings and cash flow forecast for the BASF Group
In 2024, the BASF Group generated EBITDA before special items of €7.9 billion. This figure is slightly below the forecast range at the beginning of the year of €8.0 billion to €8.6 billion. This was mainly due to the earnings declines in our standalone businesses. While we had forecast a slight decline in EBITDA before special items for Agricultural Solutions in February 2024, the segment posted much lower earnings. In the Surface Technologies segment, EBITDA before special items fell slightly, after we had anticipated a result on par with the previous year (for more information on the background to the deviating developments, see below). Our core businesses increased their earnings as assumed.
The BASF Group’s free cash flow amounted to €0.7 billion in the 2024 business year and therefore exceeded our forecast range of €0.1 billion to €0.6 billion. This increase was due to payments for intangible assets and property, plant and equipment, which rose considerably compared with the previous year, but were lower than expected at €6.2 billion (forecast: €6.5 billion). Cash flows from operating activities amounted to €6.9 billion and were within our forecast range of €6.6 billion to €7.1 billion.
CO2 emissions forecast for the BASF Group
CO2 emissions amounted to 17.0 million metric tons and were therefore within the range we had forecast in February 2024 of between 16.7 million metric tons to 17.7 million metric tons. Additional emissions due to higher production volumes were offset by reductions in emissions as a result of process efficiencies and the increased use of renewable energies.
Capex forecast for the BASF Group
In 2024, we invested around €6.0 billion in property, plant and equipment, excluding additions from acquisitions, IT investments, restoration obligations and right-of-use assets arising from leases. The figure forecast in February 2024 was around €6.2 billion. All core businesses and the Agricultural Solutions segment invested less than originally planned. Only the Surface Technologies segment’s investments were slightly higher than planned.
Earnings and cash flow forecast for the segments
In the Chemicals segment, EBITDA before special items and the segment cash flow developed as expected in February 2024. The segment considerably increased its earnings, whereas the cash flow fell sharply.
The Materials segment also developed in line with our expectations. Earnings improved slightly. As forecast, the Performance Materials division increased EBITDA before special items, primarily due to a higher contribution margin. In the Monomers division, EBITDA before special items rose considerably. Here too, a higher contribution margin played a significant role and, contrary to our expectations, overcompensated for the forecast increase in fixed costs. We had initially forecast a slight earnings decline for the division in February 2024. In accordance with our forecast, the segment’s cash flow decreased considerably.
As assumed, the Industrial Solutions segment also considerably increased EBITDA before special items. As forecast, the segment’s cash flow declined considerably.
In the Nutrition & Care segment, we had forecast a considerable earnings increase and a sharp fall in segment cash flow for the 2024 business year. Both indicators developed as forecast.
Earnings in the Surface Technologies segment were slightly below the prior-year figure. We originally expected EBITDA before special items at the prior-year level. This decrease was caused by a sharp earnings decline in the Catalysts division, which primarily resulted from lower precious metal prices and volumes. We had expected a slight increase in earnings. In the Coatings division, EBITDA before special items, on the other hand, was slightly above the prior-year level, although we had projected a slight decline. A higher contribution margin more than compensated for higher fixed costs and lower volumes. As forecast, cash flow declined considerably in both divisions.
In the Agricultural Solutions segment, EBITDA before special items decreased considerably rather than slightly. Alongside the expected rise in fixed costs, the difficult market conditions in the glufosinate-ammonium business were instrumental in the decline being steeper than planned. Unlike earnings, the segment’s cash flow developed more positively than expected. It was slightly above the prior-year figure mainly due to significant inventory reduction and a lower increase in receivables. We had anticipated a considerable decrease.
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