Outlook for the chemical industry

• Global growth in chemical industry roughly at level of previous year

Global chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2018, roughly on a level with 2017 (+3.5%). We anticipate a slightly weaker expansion rate in the advanced economies (2017: +3.7%; 2018: +2.4%). Growth in the emerging markets should pick up slightly (2017: +3.4%; 2018: +4.2%).

The development of the world’s largest chemical market – China – has a significant impact on the global growth rate. We again expect slightly stronger growth here after a comparatively weak figure in 2017. As a result, China will presumably once again account for almost two percentage points of global chemical growth. Growth rates in the remaining emerging markets of Asia should remain stable.

We expect growth in the E.U. to remain above average in 2018, but slower than in 2017. Domestic demand in key customer industries will probably be slightly weaker following strong industrial growth in the previous year. We also anticipate weaker export demand from Asia.

By contrast, chemical growth in the United States should pick up. One reason for the higher growth forecast for 2018 is the production outages in the U.S. caused by Hurricane Harvey in fall 2017. In addition, new production capacities will reach the market in 2018, which will presumably increase exports as well.

We expect chemical growth in Japan to level off after unusually strong, largely export-driven growth in the previous year.

In South America, we assume that the upturn in the chemical industry will continue in line with the overall economic recovery.

Outlook for chemical production 2018 (excl. pharmaceuticals)
(Real change compared with previous year)

Trends in chemical production 2018–2020 (excl. pharmaceuticals)
(Average annual real change)