Outlook for the Chemical Industry

• Global growth in chemical industry roughly at level of previous year

Global chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2019, on a level with 2018 (+2.7%). For 2019, we anticipate a similar expansion rate in the advanced economies as in the previous year (2018: +1.5%; 2019: +1.6%) and slightly slower growth in the emerging markets (2018: +3.4%; 2019: +3.3%).

The development of the world’s largest chemical market – China – has a significant impact on the global growth rate. Our forecast assumes that chemical production in China will grow by 3.6%, about as fast as in the previous year in a slightly weaker global economic environment overall. A stabilization of automotive demand in China should support demand for chemicals. Based on its large share of the global market of around 40%, China alone would therefore still account for almost 60% of global chemical growth. Chemical production growth in the remaining emerging markets of Asia is expected to be similar to that in China.

For the E.U., we anticipate a recovery in chemical production over the course of 2019 following the slump at the end of 2018. However, we only expect production to be flat compared with the full-year 2018. Demand from the automotive industry will presumably continue to decline slightly. Agriculture should see renewed growth. In the construction industry, too, growth is expected to remain solid. Base effects should also have a positive impact.

In the United States, we expect slightly lower, but still above-average growth in chemical production in the coming year. Ongoing capacity expansions will strengthen the supply side while on the demand side, industry growth will be slightly weaker.

We expect slightly stronger chemical growth in Japan, driven by domestic demand and, in part, by exports to China.

For South America, we anticipate an upturn in chemical production in line with the macroeconomic recovery in Brazil.

Outlook for chemical production 2019 (excluding pharmaceuticals)

Real change compared with previous year

Trends in chemical production 2019–2021 (excluding pharmaceuticals)

Real change compared with previous year