Actual Development Compared with Outlook for 2025
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The content of this section is voluntary, unaudited information, which was critically read by the auditor.
Earnings and Cash Flow Forecast for the BASF Group
The range for EBITDA before special items forecast in February 2025 was originally between €8.0 billion and €8.4 billion. The forecast for the BASF Group was adjusted to between €7.3 billion and €7.7 billion in July 2025. As part of the carving out of the coatings disposal group, the forecast was technically adjusted to between €6.7 billion and €7.1 billion in October 2025. The outlook for the segments has remained unchanged since February 2025. In determining the actual development compared to the outlook for 2025, it was taken into account that sales and earnings of coatings were no longer part of the sales and EBIT(DA) of the BASF Group or the Surface Technologies segment with retroactive effect as of January 1, 2025.
In 2025, the BASF Group generated EBITDA before special items of €6.6 billion. This figure was slightly below the range forecast in October 2025. This was mainly due to the earnings declines in our core businesses. While we had forecast a slight decline in EBITDA before special items for Chemicals in February 2025, the segment posted much lower earnings. EBITDA before special items also declined significantly in the Materials, Industrial Solutions and Nutrition & Care segments, after we had expected a slight improvement in earnings (see below for more information on the background to the divergent developments).
The BASF Group's free cash flow in the 2025 business year was €1.3 billion, well above the range of between €0.4 billion and €0.8 billion forecast in February 2025. Free cash flow was supported by lower payments for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets, which, at €4.3 billion, were below the forecast figure of €5.2 billion. Cash flows from operating activities amounted to €5.6 billion and were within our forecast range of €5.6 billion to €6.0 billion.
CO2 emissions forecast for the BASF Group
CO2 emissions amounted to 16.1 million metric tons and were therefore below the range we had forecast in February 2025 of between 16.7 million metric tons and 17.7 million metric tons. Reduced production volumes, slightly higher process efficiencies and increased use of electricity from renewable energies were the main reasons for the deviations from the forecast.
Capex forecast for the BASF Group
In 2025, we invested €4.0 billion in property, plant and equipment (excluding additions from acquisitions, IT investments, restoration obligations and right-of-use assets arising from leases). The figure forecast in February 2025 was around €5.0 billion. All segments invested less than originally planned.
Earnings and cash flow forecast for the segments
In the Chemicals segment, EBITDA before special items declined significantly, although only a slight decline had been forecast. This was mainly due to a significant decline in earnings in the Intermediates division. Despite an expected significant increase in volumes and margins, especially for amines, the planned recovery failed to materialize. The segment's cash flow increased significantly, as predicted in February 2025.
EBITDA before special items for the Materials segment was considerably less than the prior-year figure. We had forecast a slight increase in the segment's earnings. The decline in earnings was mainly due to lower contribution margins of both divisions due to price and currency effects. We had expected stable margins. The volume increase was slightly lower than expected. Fixed costs in the Monomers division decreased contrary to expectations, but only slightly mitigated the decline in earnings. Although the segment's cash flow was forecast to remain at the previous year's level, it increased significantly. While cash flow in the Performance Materials division declined as expected, the Monomers division achieved a stronger than planned improvement in cash flow, particularly due to a higher reduction in inventories.
EBITDA before special items in the Industrial Solutions segment also declined significantly, although we had forecast a slight increase. Against expectations, earnings in the Performance Chemicals division fell significantly: Instead of the forecast significant sales volumes increase, volumes declined. Earnings in the Dispersions & Resins division declined more sharply than expected. Contrary to what had been forecast, the cost savings program only partially compensated for the inflation-related increase in fixed costs. As forecast, the segment’s cash flow declined slightly.
In the Nutrition & Care segment, we had expected a slight increase in earnings for the 2025 business year. However, the segment's EBITDA before special items declined significantly. Care Chemicals did not match the previous year's earnings, contrary to our expectation. Lower contribution margins led to a significant decrease in earnings. Nutrition & Health's earnings improved significantly as forecast. However, the increase in earnings was, other than expected, not attributable to improved margins but to lower fixed costs. As expected, the segment's cash flow was significantly below the prior-year figure.
In the Surface Technologies segment, earnings rose significantly, as forecast. As expected, the segment's cash flow also improved significantly.
In the Agricultural Solutions segment, both indicators developed as expected: EBITDA before special items increased slightly and the segment's cash flow declined significantly.