Outlook for Key Customer Industries
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The content of this section is voluntary, unaudited information, which was critically read by the auditor.
We anticipate global industrial production will increase by 2.3% (2025: +2.9%). It is expected to grow only marginally in the advanced economies (2026: +0.7%, 2025: +0.6%). Growth is likely to decline slightly in the emerging markets (2026: +3.5%, 2025: +4.7%).
We expect the entire transportation industry1 to stagnate after growth of 3.3% in 2025. For the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, we now expect a slight decline after the significant growth in 2025. Global production will decline from just under 93 million vehicles to 92.6 million vehicles. For the market in China, we now expect a slight decline after the strong growth in 2025. We also anticipate a decline in production for the EU, the United States, South Korea and Japan. Countervailing positive momentum is coming from India and the ASEAN countries. The share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the total production volume is expected to increase further from around 16% in 2025 to around 19% in 2026.
Given the slightly weaker global industrial growth, the energy and raw materials sector is likely to grow at a slower pace in 2026 compared with 2025. All subsectors (energy supply, oil and gas production, refining, non-energy raw materials extraction) are expected to contribute to growth. The production of non-energy raw materials is expected to grow slightly faster than oil and gas production.
We expect the construction industry to accelerate moderately, but growth will remain lower than that of global industrial production. The building construction sector remains weak globally, while infrastructure investments continue to grow solidly. In the EU, we anticipate that the residential real estate cycle will have bottomed out, with residential construction expected to grow slightly stronger than in the previous year. In the United States, residential construction investment is expected to continue to fall against the backdrop of interest rates and construction costs remaining high. As infrastructure spending is also only increasing moderately, construction activity in the region is expected to continue to decline overall. For China, we expect a further decline in new residential construction, which will be offset by infrastructure investments, resulting in modest overall market growth.
As in 2025, consumer goods production will grow at a slightly weaker rate than global GDP. Production in the furniture industry is expected to increase again, but will grow only weakly overall. Higher growth rates, which continue to lie below the global GDP growth rate, are expected in the textile and apparel industry. Production of care chemicals is also anticipated to grow at a slightly slower pace than global GDP.
We expect the electronics industry to continue to grow at an above-average rate, although it is forecast to be somewhat weaker than in 2025. Growth continues primarily in computer and communications technology, whereas traditional consumer electronics is likely to see weaker growth.
We expect growth in the health and nutrition sector to be weaker than in 2025 and slightly below the GDP growth rate. As in 2025, growth in the food industry is expected to lag slightly behind global GDP, while slightly higher growth is projected for the pharmaceutical industry, albeit lower than the above-average performance in 2025.
Agricultural production in 2026 is expected to grow slightly less than in 2025, when yields grew at an above-average rate due to favorable weather conditions. In Europe and North America, growth is expected to remain stable but at a low level. In South America, on the other hand, growth is likely to slow significantly following the strong catch-up effects in Brazil in 2025. In Asia, agricultural production is likely to continue to grow solidly overall. However, growth is expected to be slightly subdued in China after the above-average rate in 2025. The other countries in the region are expected to maintain their growth momentum.
1 The transportation industry includes the production of motor vehicles, motor vehicle parts and the construction of other vehicles (especially ships and boats, trains, air and spacecraft, and two-wheelers).