Outlook for the Chemical Industry

The global chemical industry (excluding pharmaceuticals) is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2026, slower than in 2025 (+3.6%). As in 2025, we expect production in the mature economies to decline (2026: –0.6%, 2025: –0.7%). Growth in the emerging markets will slow (2026: +3.6%, 2025: +5.3%).

In China, which accounts for half of global chemical production, growth is expected to slow but still remain solid (2026: +4.0%, 2025: +7.0%). We continue to expect a substantial rise in demand from Chinese customer industries overall. In addition, we expect exports to continue to grow, especially to Asia and Europe.

In the other emerging markets of Asia, we assume that the chemical industry will return to stronger growth after the slight increase in 2025, but this will be below the level of growth in domestic industrial production (2026: +2.6%, 2025: +0.7%).

We foresee a further decline in production for the EU (2026: –0.6%, 2025: –2.1%). Overall, demand from customer industries in Europe remains weak. In foreign trade, import pressure is expected to remain high. At the same time, increased import tariffs in the United States and the weaker U.S. dollar lower the competitiveness of European imports in the United States.

Despite the improved position on export markets, we expect a slight decline in chemical production (–1.0%) for the United States due to weak industrial demand from the automotive industry, the construction sector and the consumer goods industry.

We forecast stagnation for Japan after a decline in production by 0.8% in 2025. This is in line with the overall subdued growth in customer industries.

In South America, chemical production is expected to grow moderately overall, supported by growing demand from all major customer industries.