Outlook 2026
The content of this section is not part of the statutory audit of the annual financial statements but has undergone a separate limited assurance by our auditor.
The content of this section is voluntary, unaudited information, which was critically read by the auditor.
Global economic development in 2026 will be determined by changes in trade policy conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Temporary extraordinary effects from early orders and a corresponding buildup of inventories, which supported growth in the previous year, will not occur in 2026. The higher tariffs in the United States are redirecting the global flow of goods and leading to increasing competitive pressure in countries or regions with lower import barriers.
Against this background, we expect more subdued development of the global economy as well as industrial and chemical production in 2026. Our forecast for the BASF Group and its segments assumes that growth in global gross domestic product will be slightly lower and that of global industrial production will be significantly lower than the prior-year level. We expect a further decline in chemical production in the mature economies and weaker growth in the emerging markets. In China, growth will weaken but remain solid as demand from Chinese customer industries continues to grow, supported by exports. In the EU and the United States in particular, we expect a further decline in chemical production due to weak demand and, in the case of the EU, high import pressure. After automotive production increased significantly in 2025, we expect a slight decline in 2026.
Our planning was based on an average oil price of $65 for a barrel of Brent crude and an exchange rate of $1.20 per euro (for more information see Economic Environment in 2026 and Opportunities and Risks).
Earnings and Free Cash Flow Forecast for the BASF Group1
Million € |
2025 |
2026 forecast |
|
|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA before special items |
6,554 |
€6.2 billion to €7.0 billion |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flows from operating activities |
5,610 |
€4.9 billion to €5.7 billion |
|
− |
Payments made for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets |
4,267 |
€3.4 billion |
Free cash flow |
1,342 |
€1.5 billion to €2.3 billion |
|
The BASF Group expects EBITDA before special items of between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion in 2026 (2025: €6.6 billion). The Nutrition & Care and Chemicals segments are likely to increase their earnings significantly, while Industrial Solutions expects a slight increase in earnings. In the Materials and Agricultural Solutions segments, we forecast slightly lower earnings due to currency effects. Surface Technologies' EBITDA before special items is predicted to be significantly below the 2025 level, mainly due to the absence of one-off effects in the Environmental Catalyst and Metal Solutions (ECMS) division.
We expect the BASF Group’s free cash flow to be between €1.5 billion and €2.3 billion (2025: €1.3 billion). This is based on forecast cash flows from operating activities of between €4.9 billion and €5.7 billion, minus the expected payments made for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets in the amount of €3.4 billion.
CO2 Emissions Forecast for the BASF Group
CO2 emissions are expected to be between 17.2 million metric tons and 18.2 million metric tons in 2026. We expect higher emissions compared to the previous year mainly due to the startup of the Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China, while production volumes at other production sites will remain almost unchanged. We will counteract this increase with targeted measures to reduce emissions, such as further increasing energy efficiency, optimizing processes and continuing the shift to electricity from renewable energies.
1 For EBITDA before special items and cash flow, “slight” represents a change of 0.1% to 10.0%, while “considerable” applies to changes of 10.1% and higher. “At prior-year level” indicates no change (+/–0.0%).