Actual Development Compared with Outlook for 2021

Sales, earnings and ROCE forecast for the BASF Group

We increased sales to €78.6 billion in 2021, considerably above our forecast at the beginning of the year of sales growth to between €61 billion and €64 billion. Sales in the Surface Technologies, Chemicals, Industrial Solutions, Agricultural Solutions and Nutrition & Care segments rose more strongly than initially expected. This was driven primarily by significantly higher prices, especially in the Surface Technologies and Chemicals segments. We increased sales volumes as expected. Currency and portfolio effects had an offsetting impact, in line with our assumptions.

At €7.8 billion, EBIT before special items likewise significantly exceeded the forecast range of between €4.1 billion and €5.0 billion. The Industrial Solutions, Nutrition & Care and Agricultural Solutions segments in particular did not develop as expected. Industrial Solutions increased EBIT before special items considerably, contrary to the forecast of a slight decline. EBIT before special items in the Agricultural Solutions and Nutrition & Care segments declined considerably; in both segments, we had expected a slight improvement in earnings.

We considerably increased ROCE in almost all segments. ROCE increased only slightly in the Agricultural Solutions segment, while the Nutrition & Care segment saw a considerable decline. Overall, the degree of improvement exceeded our expectations: ROCE for the BASF Group amounted to 13.5%, considerably above the range we had forecast of between 8.0% and 9.2%.

We revised the outlook provided in February 2021 in April, July and October 2021. In October 2021, we projected sales of between €76 billion and €78 billion. We expected EBIT before special items of €7.5 billion to €8.0 billion. For ROCE, we forecast a range of 13.2% to 14.1%.

Accelerator sales and CO₂ emissions forecast for the BASF Group

We increased Accelerator sales to €24.1 billion in 2021, considerably above the range forecast in February of between €18 billion and €19 billion. The range forecast in October – between €21.5 billion and €22.5 billion – was likewise exceeded. This was due to the BASF Group’s extremely positive business performance, which was also reflected in Accelerator sales. The decline caused by the divestiture of the global pigments business and the resulting outflow of Accelerator products only had a slight offsetting effect overall.

CO₂ emissions amounted to 20.2 million metric tons, slightly below the range we forecast in February of between 20.5 million metric tons and 21.5 million metric tons. BASF significantly increased production volumes in 2021 in response to stronger demand. To reduce the additional emissions resulting from this, we made procuring energy from renewable sources a focus. To this end, BASF converted energy supply agreements, acquired renewable energy certificates and signed long-term supply agreements for green power. A project to reduce nitrous oxide emissions in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was successfully implemented. Divestitures such as the disposal of the global pigments business led to a slight decline in emissions. In addition, emissions were significantly reduced by the lower capacity utilization of the ammonia plant due to the sharp rise in natural gas prices.

Capex forecast for the BASF Group

In 2021, we invested a total of €3.4 billion in capital expenditures (capex), excluding additions from acquisitions, IT investments, restoration obligations and right-of-use assets arising from leases. The figure forecast in February 2021 was €3.6 billion.

Sales, earnings and ROCE forecast for the segments

We considerably increased sales in the Chemicals segment in 2021, after only forecasting a slight increase in sales at the beginning of the year. Both divisions raised prices, significantly exceeding the price increases assumed in February as a result of extraordinary supply bottlenecks in the markets. We increased volumes as expected. The segment considerably increased EBIT before special items and ROCE, in line with the forecast.

The Materials segment recorded a considerable improvement in sales, EBIT before special items and ROCE as forecast.

Sales in the Industrial Solutions segment rose considerably in 2021, exceeding our expectations of a slight decline. This was largely driven by volume growth. Against our assumptions, this more than compensated for the negative effects from the divestiture of the global pigments business. The segment’s volume growth also led to considerably higher EBIT before special items, contrary to our forecast of a slight decline. ROCE was significantly above the prior-year level, as expected.

The Surface Technologies segment achieved significant sales growth, exceeding our forecast from February, in which we had assumed only a slight increase in sales. This primarily resulted from higher precious metal prices, which rose more strongly than expected. The significant recovery in EBIT before special items and ROCE materialized as expected.

Sales in the Nutrition & Care segment were considerably above the prior-year figure, exceeding our forecast of slight growth. This was mainly due to higher price levels, after we had assumed lower prices in February. We increased volumes in both divisions as expected. EBIT before special items declined significantly in 2021, falling short of our expectations of a slight increase. The decrease was attributable to lower earnings contributions from both divisions. This was mainly due to lower margins as a result of higher raw materials and energy prices as well as higher fixed costs, primarily from higher bonus provisions. ROCE also declined considerably in line with earnings development in the segment. Our forecast had assumed a considerable increase.

Sales in the Agricultural Solutions segment rose considerably, not just slightly as forecast. Higher sales volumes and prices exceeded negative currency effects to a greater extent than we had anticipated. Contrary to our forecast of a slight increase, EBIT before special items was considerably below the prior-year level. The positive sales development was unable to compensate for an increase in fixed costs, mainly from higher bonus provisions, higher raw materials prices and logistics costs, and a low-margin product mix. Based on the development of earnings, we were only able to increase ROCE slightly, against our assumption of a considerable increase.

We significantly improved sales and EBIT before special items in Other as forecast.

• More information on our forecast for 2022
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